2020 Stock-take

The last year has been horrifyingly difficult, and for my main collaborators and myself, the path towards survival seems to be channelling the rage and frustration from all of these things into working as hard as possible. Since the Philippine population will only get mostly-vaccinated by 2023 I’m not sure how long we’ll be able to keep this up. Maybe we can survive (and thrive) out of spite?

In the meantime this is a rundown of a few publicly-available things that’s been released in my world(s) in the last twelve months:

COVID-19 work/as UrbanisMO.Ph

  1. March 2020, as UrbanisMO.ph – “In Metro Manila, Fighting COVID-19 Requires Helping the Poor—Now” Published by the Philippine Centre for Investigative Journalism and other major news networks. https://pcij.org/article/3890/saving-metro-manila. This was picked up by GMA’s documentary group into a spin-off episode + we’ve got a few COVID-focused episodes on the UrbanisMO Podcast, in partnership with Young Public Servants.
  2. August 2020, with Tanya Quijano and Abbey Pangilinan – “Misplaced Priorities, Unnecessary Effects: Collective Suffering and Survival in Pandemic Philippines. ” The Asia-Pacific Journal 18(16). Available at: <https://apjjf.org/-Abbey–Pangilinan–Maria-Carmen–Ica–Fernandez–Nastassja–Quijano/5435/article.pdf>
  3. ·October 2020, with Justin Muyot, Abbey Pangilinan, and Tanya Quijano – “A Hero’s Welcome? Repatriated Overseas Filipino Workers and COVID-19.” Published by the London School of Economics SEAC. [online]. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/seac/2020/10/08/a-heros-welcome-repatriated-overseas-filipino-workers-and-covid-19/

Policy-directed work in Mindanao/Bangsamoro

  1. Long-running work released in June 2020 with Maripaz Abas, Tirmizy Abdullah, Hadzer Birowa, Bam Baraguir and Ombra Imam – “Children of War: A Rapid Assessment of Orphans in Muslim Mindanao.” Published by The Asia Foundation with support from the Australian Embassy. https://asiafoundation.org/publication/children-of-war-a-rapid-needs-assessment-of-orphans-in-muslim-mindanao/ I’m pretty happy that we were finally able to get this out, and that there’s interest amongst the BTA and other parties to take the work forward.
  2. The public version of a strategic review of Australia’s support to peace in Mindanao, released in November 2020 with the management response. Worked on this just before the pandemic hit with Fermin Adriano and Noor Saada – https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/development/strategic-review-and-management-response-australias-support-peacebuilding-conflict-affected-mindanao-2020

There’s quite a few other projects that’s still in the pipeline/embargoed for various reasons, as usual, pero pwede na muna to.

2021 seems like 2020 redux–but still let’s try to be useful in the meantime, despite?

[urbanismo.ph] MAHIRAP MAGING MAHIRAP, NAKAMAMATAY

Crossposting a new collaborative release with the UrbanisMO.ph crowd.

The full English and Filipino papers are available on urbanismo.ph and as Google Docs documents on bit.ly/urbancovid1 and bit.ly/urbancovid2.

Take care, everyone.

MAHIRAP MAGING MAHIRAP, NAKAMAMATAY:

A call for national, regional, and city governments and everyday citizens to address the impact of COVID-19 on poor communities

People are being told to wash our hands and stay at home to prevent the spread of COVID-19. But what happens if you have no water, no food, no money, or no home?

There is a major gap in national and local government approaches to addressing the pandemic. Now on its second iteration of what is being called an ‘enhanced community quarantine’, this government has still extensively failed to factor in the needs of the poor. Without factoring the needs of the poorest and the most vulnerable, continuing to implement short-sighted and insensitive lockdown policies will deepen existing community inequalities, drive poverty and hunger, and magnify the health risks to the entire population. 

With approximately one month to go in this enhanced community quarantine, this gap must be addressed urgently.

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On 17 March 2020, the Philippine Government declared a National State of Calamity to stem the spread of COVID-19, putting Metro Manila and the whole of Luzon in enhanced community quarantine’. People are now restricted to their homes. All modes of public transportation ranging from the MRT to buses and tricycles have been suspended, with the military and police instructed to man checkpoints across major thoroughfares. Similar to lockdowns instituted in China and affected countries globally, these measures are intended to ‘flatten the curve’, or lessen the rate of infection and transmission to a level that can be handled by the country’s health system. As of March 19, 193 confirmed cases in the country have been recorded. A recent model run by data scientists at the Asian Institute of Management projects an estimated 26,000 COVID-19 cases in the Philippines by end-March if community spread is not contained.

While it is universally agreed that ‘social distancing’ measures are paramount, netizens have criticized how policies have prioritized the rich and powerful: politicians and celebrities are the first to be tested despite the DOH algorithm; testing in posh private hospitals costs PHP 9,000  to process (the kit itself is free). Private vehicles are allowed, but day laborers and dialysis patients alike have been forced to walk for kilometers through multiple checkpoints. Homeless people on the street have been arrested. A viral video of a homeless man on what appears to be the Roxas Boulevard boardwalk asking the government to also think about them in times like this best sums up how current policies are anti-poor. Speaking through a used dirty mask, he stares at the camera, saying, “kinalimutan na kami ng gobyerno (we have been forgotten by government).”

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But how bad is the problem, at scale?  Metro Manila is one of the densest urban agglomerations in the world, outstripping other major capitals such as Delhi, Paris, or Tokyo. It anchors political, cultural, and economic life on the island-region of Luzon, which contributes to up to 70% of the country’s economic output. Metro Manila’s official population data is estimated at 12.8 million but swells to a daytime population of about 15 million, while servicing a broader catchment area of up to 21.3 million. An estimated 2.5 million people in Metro Manila live in slums, while 3.1 million are homeless. Official government data from the National Household Targeting System of the DSWD shows that there are 15.1 million poor households nationwide, and approximately 300,000 in Metro Manila. An average poor household has 5 to 6 members. 

These daytime workers are the men and women who have been stuck at the checkpoints and borders north, east, and south of Metro Manila. Even within NCR, many people live and work in different component cities–all of whom are affected by the suspension of mass transit. JICA data estimates that at least 88% of commuters do not have private vehicles. A sizeable number of citizens live hand-to-mouth, or are forced to risk their lives daily with no-work, no-pay policies. Figures 1 and 2 below map out official statistics on poverty and housing informality in the National Capital Region. Figure 1 is based on the magnitude of poor households in Metro Manila from the dataset provided by the National Household Targeting System of the DSWD. 

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Source: DSWD Listahanan 2017, DOH 2020 from UNRI, Mapadatos (JR Dizon)

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Source: PSA CPH 2010, DOH 2020 from UPRI, MapaDatos (JR Dizon)
Note:  Informality was reflected using four variables from the Philippine Census of Population and Housing (2010), beginning with households who enjoy (1) rent-free occupation with consent of owner; and (2) rent-free without consent of owner. Based on the two categories, the result was filtered based on the type of housing, specifically homes where (3) floor area is less than 5 square meters, and whose outer walls are (4) constructed of wood and other light materials.

The families in these poor, deprived, and informal settlement communities described in the maps are often the same areas that are highly vulnerable to flooding, and have limited access to health or other basic social services. In dense settlements in major cities such as Pasig, Mandaluyong, Quezon City, and Manila, the only ways to access these communities is often by tricycle or habal habal-motorcycles. 

The basic demography of poor families living in the city is in itself a vulnerability. Poor families are often large, with an average of 3-5 children and with extended family members including grandparents living under the same roof. In most cases, poor families are also single income households, with the head of household serving as the sole and primary breadwinner. In these cramped spaces, ‘social distancing’ is impossible. Even without COVID-19, these poor living conditions also trigger various health issues related to overcrowding and WASH (water and sanitation, hygiene) the most important factor in the spread of the disease.  This holds especially true for the elderly population and the children, as this is just another layer to the risks they have to live with on a daily basis. 

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Source: DSWD Listahanan 2017, DOH 2020 from UNRI, MapaDatos (JR Dizon)

All of this creates situations where ailing grandparents from our city’s slums will choose to walk through checkpoints and possibly contract COVID-19, rather than letting their children and grandchildren starve to death. Once infections are allowed to spread in these dense communities, it will be impossible to manage and contain. 

So what can we do, together?

We call on the members of the Interagency Task Force and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, local governments, private sector organizations, and everyday citizens to help make the implementation of Proclamation No. 929, Declaring a State of Calamity Throughout the Philippines Due to Corona Virus Disease 2019 more inclusive and sensitive to the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable. To do this, we must:

  1. Find ways to increase community access to water and basic sanitation, particularly with increasing water shortages across the Philippines. Provide soap, hygiene kits, masks, and other basic supplies particularly in dense, deprived, and informal settlements across different cities. 
    • Water rationing with the help of the Bureau of Fire Protection, Philippine Red Cross and other local organizations with water tanks can be organized.
    • Continue regular garbage collection and ramp up sanitation efforts across cities
  2. Provide social protection support to the poorest families. Specifically, we call on the civilian bureaucracy led by the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation,  Department of Social Welfare and Development and the Department of Labor and Employment, together with the Department of Transportation to implement, expand, and augment the existing social welfare programs to assist the affected labor force, marginalized, and other vulnerable sectors. Some of these programs include:
    • Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), Modified Conditional Cash Transfer Program (MCCT) for homeless street families, and Unconditional Cash Transfer (UCT)  under DSWD
    • PhilHealth, where coverage of  all costs should be increased to include testing, consultation and hospitalisation related to COVID-19.
    • Pantawid Pasada (DOTR/LTFRB), which should be expanded to also cover other affected sectors such as tricycle, jeepney, bus, AUV, and taxi drivers
    • TUPAD (Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged /Displaced Workers) under the Department of Labor and Employment
  3. Ensure that daily wage earners are not forced to leave their homes to feed their families by providing food aid and other incentives for the duration of the lockdown. The government must collaborate with private sector employers to assuage fears that they will lose their jobs if they are unable to physically report for work.
  4. Support the mobility of frontline services and health workers, and ensure that even citizens without private vehicles will have unimpeded access to health facilities, particularly those who are pregnant, undergoing dialysis or radiation, and in need of other essential health services. Options such as sanitized buses and bicycles can be provided for frontline workers.To the extent possible, provide options for temporary housing for front liners by coordinating with real estate developers, schools, and dormitories. Above all, efforts should be made to ensure that the implementation of checkpoint protocols are done in a humane, respectful, and non-arbitrary fashion, putting the health and safety of citizens first. 
  5. Support the health sector and local scientists to ramp up free testing capability across the Philippines, including for the poorest of the poor. With the absence of adequate laboratory facilities and trained personnel across the country, some of the PHP 27.1-billion package released by the Department of Finance should be channeled towards innovative solutions for addressing testing and the logistics thereof.
  6. Share accurate and timely information both at the national at grassroots level, in open, anonymized, and high-resolution formats; local languages and channels. Consolidate communication channels for clear messaging and information dissemination and take advantage of existing communication platforms such as the NTC text alarms to provide more useful information, not just brief regular reminders to the public. Data sharing between government agencies using such formats can also help in scientific and policy work in the long run.
  7. Encourage businesses to support the above mentioned efforts and coordinate with the government to create a singular, streamlined response.
  8. Extend the deadline of tax collection in consideration of the logistical hurdles posed by the quarantine, and call on banks, businesses, and property owners to extend and/ or defer deadlines of bill payments. 

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While the evidence described in this call is focused on the experience of Metro Manila, we encourage national and local leaders in quarantined communities in the rest of Luzon and in Visayas and Mindanao to ensure that all policies support the poorest and most vulnerable of our neighbors.

Planning in the Philippines has historically been informed by colonial, extractive, and punitive perspectives that deepen class divides. This is an opportunity to take a hard look at how our cities and neighborhoods have been shaped by spatial inequalities that dictate who has access to resources and who does not, and who can comfortably watch Netflix from behind gated communities while others must walk for hours to find enough money to eat for the day.

As middle-class development workers and practitioners, we must do better. This is a chance to break down the walls and take care of our neighbors and each other.  

In solidarity,

The UrbanisMO.ph community

www.urbanismo.ph

UrbanisMOwhitebg (1)

As a loose collective of professionals working in various fields linked to urban and regional planning and local economic development, we offer our help for free. If there are local government units (LGU) who would need technical assistance in thinking through packages for their constituents, kindly send us a message at urbanismoph@protonmail.com.

 

Examining the effects of drug-related killings on Philippine Conditional Cash Transfer beneficiaries in Metro Manila, 2016-2017

After more than two years of work, Abbey Pangilinan, Nastassja Quijano and I are releasing a first paper on the early effects of the so-called Philippine Drug War on conditional cash transfer beneficiaries in Metro Manila from 2015-2016. The full preprint is available for download here, with coverage available from the Southern China Morning Post, The Asean Post, and Rappler. Many of these threads appear in the hip-hop album Kolateral, but there are certain things that even the best works of art cannot completely convey.

There are so many things that I wish we could have done methodologically given constraints on time, resources, and data access. Realistically only the Department of Social Welfare and Development and its development partners will have the ability to do a full-scale review across all regions–which I hope they will do, as a first step towards designing support interventions for the families left behind.

 

Abstract  

Is the Philippine War on Drugs truly a ‘War on the Poor’? Focusing on beneficiaries of the Philippine conditional cash transfer (CCT) or the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program, we examine the effects of anti-illegal drug operations on poor families in Metro Manila from April 2016 to December 2017. From field validation and interviews with families affected by drug-related killings (DRKs), we find that at least 333 victims out of 1,827 identifiable DRK cases in Metro Manila from June 2016 to December 2017 were CCT beneficiaries. This is equivalent to anywhere from 1,365 to 1,865 affected household members, including at least two children per family. At least 12 cases involved multiple killings within the same family. These are extremely conservative figures since field validation did not saturate all cities in Metro Manila and does not include deaths after December 2017 or other poor families that are not covered by the CCT. The findings illustrate that drug-related killings negatively affect CCT beneficiaries and their families. Most victims were breadwinners, leading to a decrease in household income. The reduced available income, as well as the social stigma of having a drug-related death in the family, causes children covered by the CCT to drop out of school. Widowed parents often find new partners, leaving the children with aging paternal grandmothers. Drug-related killings are often bookended by other hazards such as flooding, fires, and home demolitions. The direct effects of these killings, compounded with disasters and other socioeconomic shocks, traumatizes CCT families, erodes social cohesion, and pushes them further into poverty. We conclude with recommendations for the design of support packages to mitigate untoward effects on families, children, the elderly, as well as single parent households.

See https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336317469_Examining_the_effects_of_drug-related_killings_on_Philippine_Conditional_Cash_Transfer_beneficiaries_in_Metro_Manila_2016-2017

EDIT: Popular coverage of the research project can be found here:

  1. Southern China Morning Post – “As Duterte’s drugs war rages on in the Philippines, nation’s children are paying the price”
  2. The Asean Post – “Who are Duterte’s real victims?”
  3. Rappler.com – “How Duterte’s drug war is negating key anti-poverty programs”
  4. Philippine Centre for Investigative Journalism – “Between Two Wars” [an illustrated piece supported by the PCIJ Story Project]